Reckonize

The Rent Cheque

Your rent went up again. You do the math. Half your income, gone. You look at listings. Everything is worse. You stay and absorb it.

The System

Canada has a rental crisis that predates the pandemic. Vacancy rates in most major cities are below 2%. Rents have outpaced wages for over a decade. The market is not correcting. It's accelerating.

$0$/mo

Avg 2BR rent (Oct 2023)

0%

National vacancy rate

0%

Rent increase (2015-2023)

1,359CAD/month

The national average rent for a two-bedroom apartment reached $1,359/month in October 2023. Up 8% in one year.

1.5percent

The national vacancy rate fell to 1.5% in 2023. A healthy rental market needs 3-5%. Below 2% gives landlords all the pricing power.

?

Let's hear the other side

...and see if it holds water

Rent control has a documented downside. A Stanford study found that San Francisco landlords subject to rent control redu...

The Promise

The National Housing Strategy promised affordable housing. The Rapid Housing Initiative promised speed. Multiple federal programs promised to bend the cost curve.

1946Event

CMHC founded

Created to house returning WWII veterans.

1972-1994Event

Social housing golden era

Social housing = 7-20% of all housing built annually.

1993Reality

Federal social housing funding ends

Final Mulroney budget ends all new federal social housing funding. The exit.

1996Reality

Social housing downloaded to provinces

Federal government transfers social housing management to provinces.

Post-1996Reality

30-year deficit begins

Social housing drops to 1-2% of all builds.

2017Promise

National Housing Strategy

$82B, 3.87M homes promise.

2023Reality

PBO: federal targets will fall short

Federal programs will produce fewer than 100,000 units. Target was 160,000+.

2024Promise

Housing Accelerator Fund signs 241 communities

112,000+ units permitted.

2025Reality

CMHC: 2.6 million unit supply gap

Need 430,000-480,000/year. Building ~245,000.

100,000units

The PBO estimated in 2023 that federal housing programs will produce fewer than 100,000 new units over their lifetime. The target was 160,000+.

The Reality

Rents keep rising. Supply keeps falling short. The gap between what was promised and what was delivered grows every quarter.

Rent vs income growth (2015-2023)

Across Canada, rents have outpaced wages by nearly 2:1 since 2015. The gap is structural — not a temporary blip. Vacancy rates below 2% give landlords pricing power that no amount of tenant advocacy can offset without supply.

33percent increase

Between 2015 and 2023, average rents in Canada rose 33%. Median household income rose 18% over the same period. The gap is structural.

What Works

Vienna has kept housing affordable for 100 years. 60% of its residents live in subsidized housing. The city builds, owns, and manages housing at scale. It works.

Social/public housing as % of total housing

60percent

In Vienna, 60% of residents live in subsidized housing. The city owns 220,000 units directly and subsidizes another 200,000+. Average rent in social housing is under 500 EUR/month.

What You Can Do

The rent crisis is a supply crisis and a regulation crisis. Both can be fixed. Other cities have proven it.

Push your city council to adopt inclusionary zoning. Require 10-20% of new developments to be affordable units. Montreal, Vancouver, and Toronto have versions of this. Most cities don't.

Connected threads

Sources

  1. [1] CMHC Rental Market Report — Rental Market Report, Fall 2023 Link
  2. [2] CMHC Rental Market Report — Rental Market Report, Fall 2023 — National overview Link
  3. [3] Parliamentary Budget Officer — Federal Housing Programs analysis, 2023 Link
  4. [4] CMHC Rental Market Report — Historical rental data series Link
  5. [5] City of Vienna Housing — Social housing overview Link